Rapid Forecasting of Short-run Electric Power Demand Profiles of India Using the Statistical Method of Z Scores

Year : 2025 | Volume : 14 | Issue : 01 | Page : 38 48
    By

    Rupsha Bhattacharyya,

  1. Scientific Officer, Applied Systems Analysis, Homi Bhabha National Institute, Mumbai, India Upgrading Plant Design and Fabrication Section, BARC, Mumbai, India

Abstract

Power demand profile prediction for a region or nation is a critical part of the energy system design and operational planning process. A simplified method based on non-dimensionalizing power demand data from previous years using Z scores calculated from the mean and standard deviation of the profiles is developed in this study to forecast monthly demand profiles at time resolution of 1 hour for future years. The Z score range is found to be limited to ± 2 for all the input data set and this is assumed to hold true for the profile to be forecasted. Monthly averaged data from India for years 2021-2023 are used to forecast the monthly profiles for every month of 2024. The maximum relative percentage error in the forecasted hourly demand value on comparison with actual demand data is seen to lie between +8.06% and -12.06% by the methodology proposed in this study. The mean absolute percentage error in forecasting is found to range between 0.97% to 10.25%, depending on the month under consideration. The method of this work may thus be described as providing reasonable accuracy with minimal data collection, processing, and modeling efforts compared to detailed methods available in literature. This may be expected to find application in the design and planning of operations of future energy systems, which must provide a supply profile in keeping with these forecasted demand profiles and the associated deviations estimated in this work. It may also be helpful in the management of power exchanges which facilitate energy trading and the development of electricity markets.

Keywords: Demand profile; electricity; forecasting; Z scores

[This article belongs to Research & Reviews : Journal of Statistics ]

How to cite this article:
Rupsha Bhattacharyya. Rapid Forecasting of Short-run Electric Power Demand Profiles of India Using the Statistical Method of Z Scores. Research & Reviews : Journal of Statistics. 2025; 14(01):38-48.
How to cite this URL:
Rupsha Bhattacharyya. Rapid Forecasting of Short-run Electric Power Demand Profiles of India Using the Statistical Method of Z Scores. Research & Reviews : Journal of Statistics. 2025; 14(01):38-48. Available from: https://journals.stmjournals.com/rrjost/article=2025/view=208462


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Regular Issue Subscription Original Research
Volume 14
Issue 01
Received 17/02/2025
Accepted 19/03/2025
Published 21/04/2025
Publication Time 63 Days
201

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