Trend Analysis of Long-Term Rainfall Data for Monsoon Season of Kharun Catchment

Year : 2025 | Volume : 03 | Issue : 01 | Page : 12-17
    By

    Vipin Kumar Mishra,

  • Dhiraj Khalkho,

  • Shruti Verma,

  1. Ph.D. Scholar, Department of Soil and Water Engineering, SVCAET & RS, Indira Gandhi Krishi Vishwavidyalaya, Raipur, Chhattisgarh, India
  2. Chief Scientist, Department of Soil and Water Engineering, SVCAET & RS, Indira Gandhi Krishi Vishwavidyalaya, Raipur, Chhattisgarh, India
  3. Assistant Professor, Department of Soil and Water Engineering, SVCAET & RS, Indira Gandhi Krishi Vishwavidyalaya, Raipur, Chhattisgarh, India

Abstract

This research paper investigates the trends in monsoon season rainfall over a 31-year period (1990–2021) using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test. A range of statistical methods were utilized to analyze the rainfall data, providing valuable insights into its temporal patterns and trends. The correlation coefficient, measured by Kendall’s Tau, exhibited a minimal positive correlation of 0.004 between years and their corresponding rainfall, quantities. This implies a slight tendency for increased rainfall with the passage of time. The Mann–Kendall statistic (S) yielded a value of 2 from a two-tailed test, accompanied by a p-value of 0.98 revealing that there is no statistically significant trend in the rainfall data. This implies that the observed fluctuations in monsoon rainfall over the 31-year span are more likely attributable to natural variability rather than a consistent upward or downward trajectory. Moreover, employing an alpha level of 0.050, the Sens’s slope (Q) of 0.119 demonstrated a marginal positive slope, indicating a minor rise in rainfall over time. However, this trend lacks the strength required for statistical significance. The Z value of 1.98 further reinforces the insignificance of the observed trend, aligning with the null hypothesis of no trend.

Keywords: Trend analysis, Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, rainfall

[This article belongs to International Journal of Rural and Regional Development ]

How to cite this article:
Vipin Kumar Mishra, Dhiraj Khalkho, Shruti Verma. Trend Analysis of Long-Term Rainfall Data for Monsoon Season of Kharun Catchment. International Journal of Rural and Regional Development. 2025; 03(01):12-17.
How to cite this URL:
Vipin Kumar Mishra, Dhiraj Khalkho, Shruti Verma. Trend Analysis of Long-Term Rainfall Data for Monsoon Season of Kharun Catchment. International Journal of Rural and Regional Development. 2025; 03(01):12-17. Available from: https://journals.stmjournals.com/ijrrd/article=2025/view=201855



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Regular Issue Subscription Original Research
Volume 03
Issue 01
Received 24/10/2024
Accepted 27/01/2025
Published 05/02/2025
Publication Time 104 Days
Total Visits: 41


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