Rupsha Bhattacharyya,
- Assistant Professor, Chemical Engineering Group, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC), MumbaI, Maharashtra, India
Abstract
Nuclear power reactors of the current fleet mainly use uranium as the fissile fuel material. The economics of nuclear fuels are mainly governed by the prices of uranium. This work is an analysis of monthly uranium price data available from public data sources, covering the time frame from January 1990 to April 2025. In the near term, from 2021 to 2024, monthly uranium spot prices have been between $ 35.28±6.64/lb U3O8 to $ 85.14±7.82/lb U3O8, with a mean price showing an annual increase of 25.5 to 41.2%. Long-term contract prices during the same time frame for uranium have been $ 36.81±4.44/lb U3O8 to $ 78.88±2.97/lb U3O8. The highest overall volatility was observed in 2023. From the long-term data spanning 424 months, the distributional characteristics show the right-skewed and non-stationary nature of uranium price distribution, and the more symmetric nature of the distribution of the month-on-month price changes. The distributions are not Gaussian in nature. Uranium prices have been highly volatile but have also shown relatively low correlation coefficient values with prices of other major energy commodities such as crude oil, coal, and natural gas, indicating that the electricity system diversification also makes it resilient to price shocks. This analysis further highlights that uranium price dynamics are influenced by both market fundamentals and geopolitical factors, including supply disruptions, policy changes, and shifts in nuclear energy demand. Periods of heightened volatility often coincide with renewed global interest in nuclear power or supply constraints from major producers.
Keywords: Futures, nuclear fuel, price, spot price, statistics, uranium
[This article belongs to Research & Reviews : Journal of Statistics ]
Rupsha Bhattacharyya. Exploratory Analysis of the Statistical Characteristics of Nuclear Fuel Cost Trends. Research & Reviews : Journal of Statistics. 2025; 14(03):39-49.
Rupsha Bhattacharyya. Exploratory Analysis of the Statistical Characteristics of Nuclear Fuel Cost Trends. Research & Reviews : Journal of Statistics. 2025; 14(03):39-49. Available from: https://journals.stmjournals.com/rrjost/article=2025/view=234007
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Research & Reviews : Journal of Statistics
| Volume | 14 |
| Issue | 03 |
| Received | 25/07/2025 |
| Accepted | 19/08/2025 |
| Published | 04/11/2025 |
| Publication Time | 102 Days |
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