Controlled Temporal Feature Ablation and Explainable Ensemble Learning for Next- Hour Residential Electricity Forecasting
Short-term residential load forecasting is increasingly used in demand response, home energy management, and data-driven grid operation, yet reported gains are often difficult to attribute to either the forecasting algorithm or the temporal representation supplied to it.
residential load forecasting; temporal feature engineering; Extra Trees; Gradient Boosting; explainable AI; SHAP; time-series evaluation; smart energy