Predictive Factors of Long-Term Sobriety: A Post-Discharge Outcome Study in Mangalore, Goa, and Vasai (2019–2023)

Abstract

Relapse following discharge remains a major challenge in addiction recovery, even with structured treatment protocols in rehabilitation centers. This study examines post-discharge outcomes from Kripa Foundation’s rehabilitation centers in Mangalore, Goa, and Vasai over a five-year period (2019–2023). A total of 100 patients were categorized into four behavioural outcome groups: Clean (Sober), Relapsed, R.I.P. (Deceased), and Unknown. The study aimed to identify demographic and behavioural predictors of sustained sobriety post-discharge. Data from center-maintained records were analysed in relation to factors such as inpatient care duration, family involvement, and participation in aftercare programs. Results showed that longer rehabilitation stays and structured follow-up mechanisms significantly increased sobriety rates. Regional disparities in recovery outcomes were observed, with Mangalore exhibiting the highest sobriety rates, possibly due to stronger spiritual and family integration. In contrast, Goa and Vasai showed higher relapse and mortality rates, indicating weaker post-discharge support and follow-up systems. A significant percentage of cases were categorized as “Unknown” due to poor follow-up or patient migration, highlighting issues in outcome tracking. This study emphasizes the need for customized, region-specific aftercare models and a standardized national framework for follow-up to reduce relapse, enhance recovery outcomes, and create a sustainable addiction rehabilitation ecosystem in India.